Nature-based solutions for flood risk reduction: A probabilistic modeling framework

Summary Flooding is the most frequent and damaging natural hazard globally. While nature-based solutions can reduce flood risk, they are not part of mainstream risk management. We develop a probabilistic analysis framework to quantify these benefits that (1) accounts for small events rarer large events, (2) be applied basins data-scarce contexts, (3) quantifies economic reduction in people affected. Measuring terms avoided losses enables integration standard cost-benefit protective infrastructure. Results Chindwin River basin Myanmar highlight potential consequences deforestation on long-term risk. find loss driven by but storms, suggesting current practice relying storms may underestimate solutions. By providing average annual losses, helps infrastructure planning or insurance practice.